A decade after the UK entered into a hasty public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed chaos, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are resistant to losing and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in universities but hardly any politicians or activists are willing to participate with the essentials. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unification or the status quo. They writes two essays that aim for impartiality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering economic and social statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates range over national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented the writer. "Debate indicates an recognition of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they prefer unification but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his generation is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless official who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he commented. "One side will win here and somebody will in the end not succeed but both parties has has something to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, said O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
